setwd("~/Dropbox (Facebook)/Deep Cooperative Game Theory/cdm_experiments/nba")
require(ggplot2)
require(dplyr)
require(reshape2)
fo_preds <- read.csv("first_order_nba_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
fo_preds$model <- 'first_order'
so_preds <- read.csv("second_order_nba_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
so_preds$model <- 'second_order'
ds_preds <- read.csv("deepset_nba_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
ds_preds$model <- 'deepset'
preds <- rbind(fo_preds, so_preds, ds_preds)
names(preds) <- c('set', 'team', 'truth', 'pred', 'model')
preds$nll <- preds$truth*log(preds$pred) + (1-preds$truth)*(log(1-preds$pred))
preds %>%
mutate(pred_outcome = ifelse(pred>.5, 1, 0)) %>%
mutate(correct = ifelse(pred_outcome == truth, 1, 0)) %>%
group_by(set, model) %>%
summarise(m = mean(correct),
sd = sd(correct) / sqrt(n()),
mnll = mean(nll))
setwd("~/Dropbox (Facebook)/Deep Cooperative Game Theory/cdm_experiments/nba")
require(ggplot2)
require(dplyr)
require(reshape2)
fo_preds <- read.csv("first_order_nba_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
fo_preds$model <- 'first_order'
so_preds <- read.csv("cdm_nba_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
so_preds$model <- 'second_order'
ds_preds <- read.csv("deepset_nba_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
ds_preds$model <- 'deepset'
preds <- rbind(fo_preds, so_preds, ds_preds)
names(preds) <- c('set', 'team', 'truth', 'pred', 'model')
preds$nll <- preds$truth*log(preds$pred) + (1-preds$truth)*(log(1-preds$pred))
preds %>%
mutate(pred_outcome = ifelse(pred>.5, 1, 0)) %>%
mutate(correct = ifelse(pred_outcome == truth, 1, 0)) %>%
group_by(set, model) %>%
summarise(m = mean(correct),
sd = sd(correct) / sqrt(n()),
mnll = mean(nll))
so_preds
head(so_preds)
so_preds %>% group_by(V1)
head(fo_preds)
head(so_preds)
hist(so_preds$V4)
setwd("~/Dropbox (Facebook)/Deep Cooperative Game Theory/Experiments/nba")
require(ggplot2)
require(dplyr)
require(reshape2)
fo_preds <- read.csv("first_order_nba_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
fo_preds$model <- 'first_order'
so_preds <- read.csv("second_order_nba_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
so_preds$model <- 'second_order'
ds_preds <- read.csv("deepset_nba_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
ds_preds$model <- 'deepset'
preds <- rbind(fo_preds, so_preds, ds_preds)
names(preds) <- c('set', 'team', 'truth', 'pred', 'model')
preds$nll <- preds$truth*log(preds$pred) + (1-preds$truth)*(log(1-preds$pred))
preds %>%
mutate(pred_outcome = ifelse(pred>.5, 1, 0)) %>%
mutate(correct = ifelse(pred_outcome == truth, 1, 0)) %>%
group_by(set, model) %>%
summarise(m = mean(correct),
sd = sd(correct) / sqrt(n()),
mnll = mean(nll))
setwd("~/Dropbox (Facebook)/Deep Cooperative Game Theory/Old Experiments/nba")
require(ggplot2)
require(dplyr)
require(reshape2)
fo_preds <- read.csv("first_order_nba_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
fo_preds$model <- 'first_order'
so_preds <- read.csv("second_order_nba_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
so_preds$model <- 'second_order'
ds_preds <- read.csv("deepset_nba_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
ds_preds$model <- 'deepset'
preds <- rbind(fo_preds, so_preds, ds_preds)
names(preds) <- c('set', 'team', 'truth', 'pred', 'model')
preds$nll <- preds$truth*log(preds$pred) + (1-preds$truth)*(log(1-preds$pred))
preds %>%
mutate(pred_outcome = ifelse(pred>.5, 1, 0)) %>%
mutate(correct = ifelse(pred_outcome == truth, 1, 0)) %>%
group_by(set, model) %>%
summarise(m = mean(correct),
sd = sd(correct) / sqrt(n()),
mnll = mean(nll))
hist(so$preds)
hist(so_preds$V4)
ds_preds$v$
ds_preds$v$
4
ds_preds$v4
head(ds_preds)
hist(ds_preds$V4)
setwd("~/Dropbox (Facebook)/Deep Cooperative Game Theory/cdm_experiments/nba")
require(ggplot2)
require(dplyr)
require(reshape2)
fo_preds <- read.csv("first_order_nba_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
fo_preds$model <- 'first_order'
so_preds <- read.csv("cdm_nba_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
so_preds$model <- 'second_order'
ds_preds <- read.csv("deepset_nba_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
ds_preds$model <- 'deepset'
preds <- rbind(fo_preds, so_preds, ds_preds)
names(preds) <- c('set', 'team', 'truth', 'pred', 'model')
preds$nll <- preds$truth*log(preds$pred) + (1-preds$truth)*(log(1-preds$pred))
preds %>%
mutate(pred_outcome = ifelse(pred>.5, 1, 0)) %>%
mutate(correct = ifelse(pred_outcome == truth, 1, 0)) %>%
group_by(set, model) %>%
summarise(m = mean(correct),
sd = sd(correct) / sqrt(n()),
mnll = mean(nll))
setwd("~/Dropbox (Facebook)/Deep Cooperative Game Theory/Old Experiments/nba")
require(ggplot2)
require(dplyr)
require(reshape2)
fo_preds <- read.csv("first_order_nba_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
fo_preds$model <- 'first_order'
so_preds <- read.csv("second_order_nba_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
so_preds$model <- 'second_order'
ds_preds <- read.csv("deepset_nba_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
ds_preds$model <- 'deepset'
preds <- rbind(fo_preds, so_preds, ds_preds)
names(preds) <- c('set', 'team', 'truth', 'pred', 'model')
preds$nll <- preds$truth*log(preds$pred) + (1-preds$truth)*(log(1-preds$pred))
preds %>%
mutate(pred_outcome = ifelse(pred>.5, 1, 0)) %>%
mutate(correct = ifelse(pred_outcome == truth, 1, 0)) %>%
group_by(set, model) %>%
summarise(m = mean(correct),
sd = sd(correct) / sqrt(n()),
mnll = mean(nll))
setwd("~/Dropbox (Facebook)/Deep Cooperative Game Theory/cdm_experiments/nba")
require(ggplot2)
require(dplyr)
require(reshape2)
fo_preds <- read.csv("first_order_nba_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
fo_preds$model <- 'first_order'
so_preds <- read.csv("cdm_nba_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
so_preds$model <- 'second_order'
ds_preds <- read.csv("deepset_nba_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
ds_preds$model <- 'deepset'
preds <- rbind(fo_preds, so_preds, ds_preds)
names(preds) <- c('set', 'team', 'truth', 'pred', 'model')
preds$nll <- preds$truth*log(preds$pred) + (1-preds$truth)*(log(1-preds$pred))
preds %>%
mutate(pred_outcome = ifelse(pred>.5, 1, 0)) %>%
mutate(correct = ifelse(pred_outcome == truth, 1, 0)) %>%
group_by(set, model) %>%
summarise(m = mean(correct),
sd = sd(correct) / sqrt(n()),
mnll = mean(nll))
setwd("~/Dropbox (Facebook)/Deep Cooperative Game Theory/Experiments/openai_particle")
require(ggplot2)
require(dplyr)
require(reshape2)
fo_preds <- read.csv("first_order_spread_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
fo_preds$model <- 'first_order'
so_preds <- read.csv("second_order_spread_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
so_preds$model <- 'second_order'
ds_preds <- read.csv("deepset_spread_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
ds_preds$model <- 'deepset'
preds <- rbind(fo_preds, so_preds, ds_preds)
names(preds) <- c('set', 'team', 'truth', 'pred', 'model')
preds %>%
mutate(error = (truth - pred)^2) %>%
group_by(set, model) %>%
summarise(m = mean(error),
sd = sd(error) / sqrt(n()))
setwd("~/Dropbox (Facebook)/Deep Cooperative Game Theory/Experiments/openai_particle")
require(ggplot2)
require(dplyr)
require(reshape2)
fo_preds <- read.csv("first_order_spread_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
fo_preds$model <- 'first_order'
so_preds <- read.csv("second_order_spread_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
so_preds$model <- 'second_order'
ds_preds <- read.csv("deepset_spread_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
ds_preds$model <- 'deepset'
preds <- rbind(fo_preds, so_preds, ds_preds)
names(preds) <- c('set', 'team', 'truth', 'pred', 'model')
preds %>%
mutate(error = (truth - pred)^2) %>%
group_by(set, model) %>%
summarise(m = mean(error),
sd = sd(error) / sqrt(n()))
setwd("~/Dropbox (Facebook)/Deep Cooperative Game Theory/cdm_experiments/openai_particle")
require(ggplot2)
require(dplyr)
require(reshape2)
fo_preds <- read.csv("first_order_spread_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
fo_preds$model <- 'first_order'
so_preds <- read.csv("second_order_spread_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
so_preds$model <- 'second_order'
ds_preds <- read.csv("deepset_spread_prediction.csv", header=FALSE)
ds_preds$model <- 'deepset'
preds <- rbind(fo_preds, so_preds, ds_preds)
names(preds) <- c('set', 'team', 'truth', 'pred', 'model')
preds %>%
mutate(error = (truth - pred)^2) %>%
group_by(set, model) %>%
summarise(m = mean(error),
sd = sd(error) / sqrt(n()))
